Lesson 14: The Future

Popular Mechanics, March 1949: "Where a calculator on the ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and perhaps weigh 1 1/2 tons."

Who can tell what the Internet will become? The 'net, along with computing technology, has changed so rapidly in its short 25 odd year history, new developments are certain, but difficult to predict when and how they will arrive. Basically, people want the network and computers to respond to us as if we were face-to-face with another person with all the complexity we are accustomed to. The demands by humans for realistic contact over the network will drive the development of higher and higher performance networks and computers. That contact would include the ability to share sound and voice, full motion video, possibly tactile and virtual reality experiences. In addition, people will need assistance in navigating the volumes of data on the web, so three dimensional worlds and virtual realities will help to structure this data to facilitate navigation. However, there's a long way to go before that happens.

First, there will be increased performance between major hubs on the network. This has begun with a network called Internet2, as well as investment in private networks owned by the major network providers including Sprint, MCI and the Bells. Internet2 is a high-speed data network that will connect select academic institutions for supercomputing and other intensive data sharing needs. From the University of Pennsylvania's computing glossary, Internet2 is defined as:

"A project intended to facilitate and coordinate the development, deployment, operation and technology transfer of advanced, network-based applications and network services to further U.S. leadership in research and higher education and accelerate the availability of new services and applications on the Internet."

Some potential applications of Internet2 include: Digital Libraries from http://www.internet2.edu/html/digital_libraries.html# :

"Very high bandwidth and bandwidth reservation will allow currently exotic materials such as continuous digital video and audio to move from research use (such as in the Carnegie-Mellon University Digital Library Project) to much broader use. Images, audio and video can, at least from a delivery point of view, move into the mainstream currently occupied almost exclusively by textual materials. This will also facilitate more extensive research in the difficult problems of organizing, indexing, and providing intellectual access to these classes of materials.

Just as operational digital libraries today are dominated by textual material, the interface to information retrieval systems remains primarily textual. Even in the web environment, interfaces are textual, though perhaps enhanced with modest graphical or tabular materials. While language and, hence, text continue to be central tools in retrieving information, there is a substantial body of research on information visualization that has come out of organizations such as Xerox PARC over the last decade. This research promises substantial help to users in organizing, navigating, and comprehending large complex information spaces. These techniques use complex, high-resolution graphics and animation to provide visual representations of large amounts of textual information in much the same way that supercomputer based visualization has helped scientists over the past decade to gain new insights into large numeric datasets and simulation outputs. Internet2 should provide sufficient performance to the desktop to permit information visualization technologies to be evaluated in broad-based information retrieval applications. Other capabilities of Internet2, such as the ability to provide real-time help or expert consultation via audio or video conferencing part of a user interface, also offer opportunities to enrich and extend the current state of the art in information access and retrieval systems."

Tele-Immersion, from http://www.internet2.edu/html/tele-immersion.html#

"A tele-immersion system would allow individuals at different locations to share a single virtual environment. For example, participants would interact with a virtual group at a conference table approximating what would be possible in a physical room. The individuals could share and manipulate data, simulations and models of molecular, physical or economic constructs, and jointly participate in the simulation, design review or evaluation process. As an example, consider mechanical engineering students or industrial engineers working together to design a new bridge or robot arm via tele-immersion. Group members would be able to interact with other group members while sharing the virtual object being modeled."

The Virtual Laboratory, from http://www.internet2.edu/html/virtual_laboratory# .html#

"A Virtual Laboratory is a heterogeneous, distributed problem solving environment that enables a group of researchers located around the world to work together on a common set of projects. As with any other laboratory, the tools and techniques are specific to the domain of the research, but the basic infrastructure requirements are shared across disciplines. Although related to some of the applications of tele-immersion, the virtual laboratory does not assume a priori the need for a shared immersive environment."

Beyond improving connections between hubs, and providing applications over the Internet, there's the real need for improved service to homes, small businesses, schools, and others on the dirt roads of the "information superhighway". We will see a great deal of competition in providing Internet services from the Bells, cable providers, and satellite or wireless providers, and bandwidth will increase, though some clients will see the improvement faster than others.

Newer network technologies for the home or small office include: Cable modems - probably true speeds of 1.5 Mbps via the cable company DSL - Digital Subscriber Line - Up to 8Mbps downstream, 1 Mbps upstream - uses existing copper telephone network Satellite - Satellite dish required. 64Kbps to 155Mbps, depending on what you can afford. Motorola's Celestri, or Iridium Inc's services.

Beyond implications for the kinds of interactions and learning that we may be able to have in the future and what that will require in terms of network infrastructure, there are many potential social implications of the Internet. In one example of its potential impact, John Perry Barlow, a former cattle rancher, Wired magazine contributor, and civil libertarian sees the web as an opportunity for the growth in civil liberties and individual rights. In his "Cyberspace Independence Declaration", he calls for independence for the network from government intervention.

Gordon Bell, one of the leading authorities on computer architecture and design outlined his thoughts about what he wants from the Internet from a talk called "Mapping the Internet".

He writes, "Next, I want to allow bit warehouses or bit stores or bit places for audio, nice images for television. And then, 4D so we can do virtual reality. That's a bandwidth question. With that, we can do the tele-stuff. That is, we can do the remote conferencing, remote work and remote business. And I think those things are needed.

Some of the new developments will be in how governments are run and how people interact with them.  Look at the possibilities in the immediacy of voting and opinion-gathering.  The ability to cast opinions on network surveys and even interact with government officials over the network will change the way we express ourselves.  Video delivery of town meetings online will change the ways we participate. 

Some of the visions that people have for government include:

• Tax payments online
• Payments for all governmental services including parking or traffic fines, etc.
• All government documents online
• Minutes and agendas of all meetings
• Online video of meetings
• Online voting and/or survey and opinion participation
• Acquisition of licenses online
• Public online auctions of surplus supplies/materials

This lesson could go on from here ad infinatum, with testimonials and prognostications from the Pope to the pipe-fitters, but let's stop here. The network that is now defined as the Internet, is here to stay. It's not a fad, or a passing fancy, but a tool to provide ever-increasing volumes of information, and methods of collaboration. The information will take many forms, from textual, to video and 3-dimensional virtual realities, and the communication methods will utilize similar media, with increasing speeds. Keep exploring the Information Superhighway, and perhaps you will play a role in the shaping of this new frontier!