Comments to: crs@uvm.eduReviewed as of 4/20/98
THIS DOCUMENT WAS PRODUCED BY THE NEW ENGLAND REGIONAL LEADERSHIP
PROGRAM. IT IS POSTED BY THE CENTER FOR RURAL STUDIES FOR PUBLIC
USE. THE CENTER FOR RURAL STUDIES ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR
THE CONTENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION, REFER TO THE USERS GUIDE.
YOUR TOWN TOMORROW: AN EXPLORATION OF COMMUNITY FUTURES
Every problem-solving process can benefit by incorporating a long-
range view of what will change and what could change in the next
generation or two. Conversely, problem solving and creative
thinking are essential when the challenge is to envision the long-
range future of a community. The forecasting done by groups such
as California Tomorrow, Massachusetts Tomorrow, and Hawaii 2000,
provides an exciting model for classroom exploration of community
futures. These groups examine the most likely and most desirable
future alternatives on a statewide level; the application of their
approach on a local level by students is straightforward and
rewarding.
A book titled The California Tomorrow Plan follows a simple
outline. California Zero is the present state of affairs,
including both the strengths and weaknesses of the state.
California One is a "business-as-usual" forecast: present trends
and policies are projected to the year 2000. California Two is an
image of a better future which might result through a wise choice
of new policies. A classroom unit that follows this outline will
include several key elements of futuristic education: analysis of
social realities, extrapolation of numerical and non-numerical
data, creative exploration of alternative possibilities, assessment
of the impact of these alternatives, and clarification of values.
The "Tomorrow" and "2000" projects identify important elements of
a social forecast, such as population, land use, housing, jobs,
transportation, water, energy, health care, education, and
recreation. When a group of Nantucket teachers in an in-service
futuristics course did a "Nantucket Tomorrow" exercise, they
brainstormed a list of topics that were important on the island.
It was possible to come up with 14 topics for the 14 teachers, so
each member of the class researched the present situation, likely
future, and alternative possibilities for one topic.
Newspapers, government reports and documents, and personal
interviews with town fathers (and mothers!) were the most useful
sources of information. At the beginning of the research, teams of
three or four students helped each other identify the key questions
to be answered by their research. The teams met again mid-way
through the assignment to examine preliminary findings and suggest
additional sources of information.
An important part of such an exercise is the integration of
individual topics into a composite view. The cross-impact matrix
is a useful tool here; students could be encouraged to speculate
and develop theories about the interaction among population, job
opportunities, and housing, for example. A variety of other
forecasting techniques can be included in the exercise; the Delphi
technique for obtaining likelihood and time-frame data on local
possibilities could be especially helpful.
The exploration of alternatives (Yourtown Two) is the most
important, and probably the most difficult aspect of the exercise.
Most communities have an image--often unspoken, but sometimes
available in planning documents--of what the future will be like.
That is Yourtown One. Yourtown Two involves going beyond such
popular impressions through brainstorming, "What if..." exercises
(...your town was destroyed by an earthquake--no one hurt--and you
were assigned to replan it from the beginning), and other creative
thinking techniques. Science fiction, the Whole Earth Catalog, and
other material on technological and social alternatives can help to
stimulate open-minded thinking.
A variety of teaching aids can be used to develop understanding
about communities and community process. Board games (e.g.,
"Newton," "Smog," "Dirty Water") and simulations of community
decisionmaking will give insight into the way policy ideas are
created and put into play. Appearances by town leaders or visits
to local planning agencies may be useful in gathering information,
and could also encourage such officials to do some long-range
thinking.
A group of students who have done a good job at exploring community
possibilities deserve a wider audience than themselves and their
teacher. A booklet, a display in the public library, a
presentation before a town meeting, or a column in the local
newspaper--the possibilities are varied. The "Nantucket Tomorrow"
project produced a 60-page booklet. As an illustration of the type
of information that can be generated by such a project, an abstract
of the report is attached.
SOURCE: Duane Dale, Cooperative Extension, University of
Massachusetts, Amherst.
Comments to: crs@uvm.edu
Reviewed as of 4/20/98